Yesterday, I gave an analysis of the Bush/Kerry debate based more on the candidates' behaviour than their words, and suggested that an analysis of the text would lead to a different conclusion. So let's look at the transcript. There's may be an error in that version, since another transcript replaces "and I'm suggesting my opponent isn't" with "and I'm not suggesting my opponent says it", and a "decreased" with an "increased".
Kerry opens with Nixonian claims of having a secret plan to win the peace, but doesn't release details. Score a point for Kerry for criticizing Bush on the obvious weaknesses and saying that he and Bush "both love our country equally" (very important to get out when the Republican line is that Kerry hates the United States), and a point for Bush for Kerry not being forthcoming with any solutions.
Bush 1, Kerry 1.
In rebuttal, Bush claims to have "persued al-Qaeda wherever al-Qaeda tries to hide" and "upheld the doctrine that said if you harbor a terrorist, you're equally as guilty as the terrorist." Score a point for Bush if you haven't been paying attention to world affairs lately, and a point for Kerry if you have. Bush scores another point for citing victories on Afghanistan and Iraq, then gives one to Kerry by claiming Iraq was actively proliferating WMDs. Finally, Bush hilariously claims to be "persuing a strategy of freedom around the world". It's a good thing I tuned in late, or I would have been unable to restrain my laughter enough to pay attention to the rest of the debate.
Bush 2, Kerry 4.
Next, Bush gives a free point to Kerry by refuting Dick Cheney's claims that a Kerry victory would cause another Sep11. He didn't have much of a choice. It's possible to repeat such a claim without looking like an arrogant child -- Reagan could have done it -- but the chance of it backfiring is too great to take the risk. Bush gets a point for citing the Beslan massacre and conflating the actions of all the Central Asian Islamic terrorists. This isn't a leap on the manner of conflating different groups of terrorists or conflating Iraq and al-Qaeda, as there have been many reports of cooperation between al-Qaeda, the more violent elements of the Chechen nationalist movement, and the Ansar group which is now said to be strong in Iraq.
Kerry responds strongly by pointing out that Bush took resources from the Afghan reconstruction effort to invade Iraq, getting a point for that and another for citing support from military leaders including General Shalikashvili, Supreme Commander of Europe from 1992 to 1993 and JCS chairman under Clinton from 1994 to 1997. I've seen a lot of people slam Kerry for claiming that Bush failed to capture Osama bin Laden at Tora Bora, including the local paper which says there's no evidence bin Laden was there and chalks it up as one of Kerry's lies, but I remember all the papers at the time saying that bin Laden was there and was heard giving orders over the radio, so I'll let this one pass. Kerry's saying that Bush "outsourced" the job of capturing Osama bin Laden by having Afghan militia lead the assault on Tora Bora is a brilliant bit of rhetoric bringing to mind troubles in the economy and tying that to a strategic military failure that Bush bears responsibility for.
Bush 3, Kerry 8.
Jim Lehrer asks Kerry to actually cite some "collosal misjudgements" that Bush has made, and Kerry hits this fastball out of the park, outlining the difference between Bush's public promises on Iraq with his actual actions. This is another point that the newspaper is slamming Kerry on, implying that Kerry would have had no intention of invading Iraq if the inspections ultimately failed and pointing out that the U.N. might have decided to end the sanctions and inspections.
Bush's rebuttal starts off strong by citing Kerry's own words about the danger of Saddam, then goes off into fantasyland by implying that he actually exhausted all diplomatic efforts by personally arguing to the United Nations. Then it gets delusional: Bush claims that Saddam Hussein still had the WMD stockpiles. Help me out here, is there any other rational way of parsing the phrase "Saddam Hussein had no intention of disarming"? Kerry wins the debate right here. Complete, total, and utter victory.
Bush 4, Kerry 110.
Bush gives Kerry another point for using the phrase "pre-September 10th mentality" as if it's a good thing to accept that Osama destroyed Western civilization on September 11. Sorry, I don't believe in giving the terrorists that much respect.
Bush 4, Kerry 111.
In discussing whether it strains the military to fight against Iraq and al-Qaeda at the same time, Bush calls both of them "a group of folks who have such hatred in their heart they'll strike anywhere with any means", and then pushes the point home by verbally confusing Saddam and Osama. What a dumbass.
Bush 4, Kerry 112.
Bush claims that 75% of al-Qaeda is in prison. Is that the entire group, just the leadership, just the leadership we know about, or what? No points awarded since I don't know the answer, but hopefully one of the papers will look into this.
Bush starts talking up hope and freedom for Iraq. It looks pretty good, give him a point for that. Kerry launches into the Mother Of All Rebuttals that should have put the Bush campaign down once and for all, but he falls apart saying "we've got weapons of mass destruction crossing the border every single day" in Iraq. What the hell is he talking about? A point off for Kerry.
Bush 5, Kerry 111.
Bush and Kerry spar over the meaning of Kerry's vote to give Bush the authority to invade Iraq, but neither makes a significant point.
Next, Kerry attacks Bush on homeland security. They're weak attacks at first, but he finally starts citing actual weaknesses in the national defense and how Bush hasn't made enough effort to patch them up. Bush's response is hilarious, asking "how he's going to pay for all these promises. It's like a huge tax gap." Gee, y' think? I wonder why that might be.
Bush gets a point for saying "we have to be right 100 percent of the time, and the enemy only has to be right once to hurt us." Kerry gets one for "the test is not whether you're spending more money. The test is, are you doing everything possible to make America safe?" Then Bush donates a point to Kerry for saying "we're doing everything we can to protect America" after Kerry outlined a bunch of situations where the Bush Administration isn't.
Bush 6, Kerry 115.
On to Iraq. Bush gets a point for stating a goal of having Iraqis lead Iraq and pledging to withdraw when Iraq can defend itself, and another point for pointing out that you can't promise a deadline, you're done when you're done. Then he makes me wonder what he's talking about when he says "a free iraq will help secure Israel" and "a free Iraq is essential for the security of this country."
In response, Kerry says vaguely that the troops in Iraq need help but doesn't specify what kind of help they need. Later he gets into actual strategic issues like the borders not being secure.
Bush 8, Kerry 116.
In response, Bush attacks up Kerry's accurate statement that he voted to approve one version of the $87 billion military spending bill before he voted against a different version of the bill. Point to Kerry.
Kerry's response is mixed. He doesn't bother defending himself against Bush's baseless charge, but comes off well with "I believe that when you know something's going wrong, you make it right" and pledging to "lead those troops to victory" in Iraq.
Bush 8, Kerry 118.
Kerry gives a point to Bush by denying that troops in Iraq are "dying for a mistake", then picks up a point for himself by citing Bush's promises against Bush's actions again.
In response, Bush gets a point for citing existing U.N. and world support, then gives a point to Kerry by calling him "somebody whose core convictions keep changing because of politics".
Kerry accurately says that there were only three countries in the invasion, and Bush says "he forgot Poland". Point to Kerry. Then Bush says Kerry "denigrates the contributions of these brave soldiers" and implies that the coalition will fall apart if Kerry is elected, a point to Kerry on each accusation.
Bush 10, Kerry 123.
When asked about his own admission to a "miscalculation" in planning the invasion of Iraq Bush tries to spin this: "What I said was that, because we achieved such a rapid victory, more of the Saddam loyalists were around. I mean, we thought we'd whip more of them going in." Amusing, but no change in score for that or for implying that all the Iraqi fighters are Saddam loyalists. Bush does get a point for citing planned elections.
In response, Kerry defends himself against the charge of denigrating the troops and cites the relative sizes of coalition partners and the proportion of casualties, then references North Korea's recent claim to have nuclear weapons.
Bush 11, Kerry 124.
Lehrer gives Kerry another question that is either a juicy fastball down the middle or a demand to put up or shut up, depending on whether you've been paying attention to the news or watching Fox News, and Kerry hits another home run outlining Bush's promises versus what he actually did. Score another point for Kerry in citing the need to prevent the terrorists from recruiting.
Bush responds by not defending himself, instead three times accusing Kerry of accusing himself of lying and falsely accusing Kerry of "changing your positions on this war" and saying "as the politics change, his positions change". Bush racks up five points for Kerry with this quick stream of lies and innuendo. Kerry responds forcefully, succinctly, and unlike Bush, truthfully, earning another point. Bush responds by lying once again about Kerry's positions on Iraq and al-Qaeda.
Bush 11, Kerry 133.
Lehrer asks Bush whether the invasion of Iraq was worth the lives of over 1,000 U.S. soldiers. Bush does well citing his visit with the family of a fallen soldier, but he curiously supports the invasion of Iraq with the phrase "we must find Al Qaida wherever they hide".
Kerry's response is mostly flat, but he gets a few good lines: "it is vital for us not to confuse the war, ever, with the warriors", and as a final sentence, "I will never let those troops down, and will hunt and kill the terrorists wherever they are."
In response to the response, Bush again falsely accuses Kerry of "changing positions on the war on terror", earning Kerry another point. In meta-response, Kerry brings up the "Pottery Barn" rule that "if you break it, you fix it". The local paper is making a deal out of the fact that Pottery Barn doesn't actually have such a rule -- another one of Kerry's lies! -- but I don't think it's enough to change the score. Kerry earns a WTF by saying the security of Iraq is "important to Israel" before saying it's "important to America".
Bush 12, Kerry 135.
Lehrer finally asks Kerry to explain his plan for Iraq, and Kerry points out things that Bush has done wrong that he wouldn't do again: not guarding Iraq's borders or nuclear facilities, and building permanent bases and otherwise giving the impression that the U.S. is there to stay. Not quite an accurate response, but well stated, so I'll allow him a point.
In response, Bush claims that 100,000 Iraqi security personnel have been trained. I've seen reports that the real number is closer to 20,000, but Bush's point is that training is going on, so I'll give him credit. Then Bush blasts Kerry for not giving proper respect to "courageous and brave" Bush Administration puppet Iyad Allawi, who is such an independent leader of such a free sovereign nation that his recent speech to Congress was penned by the Bush campaign. That's so arrogant, I'll give Kerry a point for it.
Finally, Bush attacks the straw man that "some say that if you're Muslim you can't free, you don't desire freedom", though at least in one of the transcripts he makes it clear he's not attributing this belief to Kerry.
Bush 13, Kerry 137.
Kerry uses Allawi against Bush, citing Allawi's claim that terrorists are coming across the border and pushing his not entirely true talking point that Bush is only promising "more of the same". Bush responds weakly by saying the terrorists are attacking because they don't want freedom. No points for either.
Next, Bush supports the invasion of Iraq because "the enemy attacked us", a bit of confusion that alone would gain Kerry a point, but Kerry takes it and runs with it, earning a point.
Bush, ever more factually challenged, claims that "we tried our best" at diplomacy and says that Saddam would never have disarmed if the U.N. had continued inspections (or decided to invade, which was another option under consideration at the UN1441-authorized meeting that Bush cancelled). Another point for Kerry, who then gains another point by jumping on Bush over North Korea and being the first to cite Darfur.
Bush 13, Kerry 140.
When asked about the doctrine of preemptive war, Kerry scores by saying the option should exist but the President had better have a damned good reason for it, and connecting this to the issue of Presidential credibility. Kerry also flubs by saying "I've been fighting for proliferation the entire time" instead of anti-proliferation, which is going to be floating around pro-Bush web sites for so long that I'll give Bush a point.
Bush responds by speaking about his and Kerry's difference of opinion on the International Criminal Court, deriding the war crimes court as "unaccountable" to the desires of the United States. Bush closes with a strong line, "I'm not going to make decisions that I think are wrong for America", earning a point.
Bush 15, Kerry 141.
Next, Bush speaks very well on the North Korea negotiations. This bit, which came before I tuned in last night, explains the part that I saw about "bilateral" negotations. Bush continues similarly on Iran. Very good, a point for each.
Kerry flubs again, saying the United States should have offered nuclear fuel to Iran. He recovers by explaining the background of the North Korea crisis, that there used to be inspectors and that North Korea's fuel used to be secure, coming away with a point.
Bush earns another point in his rebuttal to Kerry, explaining that there already are sanctions on Iran and saying that "the minute we have bilateral talks, the six-party talks will unwind." Bush also looks like a fool in saying "we can't sanction them anymore" about Iran and accusing Kerry of getting his facts wrong about North Korea producing plutonium when the transcript doesn't have Kerry mentioning plutonium at all, but I don't think it's serious.
Kerry then earns a point by saying he meant that the U.S. should pressure other countries into enacting sanctions on Iran.
Bush 19, Kerry 143.
Next, Kerry comes on strong on Darfur, saying that the US can have the African Union do the fighting without risking US troops on an unpopular anti-genocide operation by taking care of the AU's support and logistics. Also, and here's where I tuned in, Kerry pledges to add two divisions to the Army and double the number of Special Forces. A point for each.
Bush's response is weak, effectively saying that nothing more needs to be done than is already being done.
Bush 19, Kerry 145.
When asked if each candidate believes the other has character issues which should preclude them from being President, Bush again makes the false accusation that Kerry "changes positions on something as fundamental as what you believe in your core, in your heart of hearts, is right in Iraq". Kerry responds as weakly as possible, complimenting Bush's family, before accusing Bush of not acknowledging "what's on the ground...the realities of North Korea...the truth of the science of stem-cell research or of global warming".
Bush responds by repeating his "core values" charge, and Kerry finally defends himself. Maybe it was Kerry's plan to wait until late in the debate so people would remember his defense instead of Bush repeating the charge. In any case, it's about time.
Bush 19, Kerry 148.
Kerry does an excellent job declaring nuclear proliferation to be the most important issue to him, and taking a few shots at Bush for cutting funding on Russian antiproliferation efforts. No mention, however, of the Bush administration ending the undercover career of an agent who worked antiproliferation.
Bush has a good response on his own work in antiproliferation, and tying in the ballisitic missile defense system into the subject.
Kerry's metaresponse presses home Bush's failures, while Bush's focuses on the need for China's leverage on North Korea.
Bush 21, Kerry 150.
Bush gets a point for his words on Putin and Russia, basic pro-democracy anti-terrorism stuff. Kerry makes a minor goof, calling Lubyanka Square "Treblinka Square", but otherwise stresses his experience and similar feelings, earning him a point.
After Kerry cites North Korea, the two get bogged down in short responses with Lehrer until Kerry comes out on top citing Bush's rush to invade Iraq.
Bush 22, Kerry 152.
Kerry's final words are strong, centering on the powerful and resolute leadership he'd bring to office. Bush also gave a good final performance, talking up hope.
The final score is Bush 23, Kerry 153.
On the whole, Kerry performed ably. Not an overpowering performance, but not weak.
Bush could not stop lying about Kerry's positions, and I'd gamble that no news reporter in the mainstream media is going to call him on it. I'm informed enough to see Bush's lies for the falsehoods that they are, but to someone who has only been exposed to the Republican Party megaphone that most of the U.S. media consists of, they might be under the false impression that Kerry has changed his core values on Iraq, which would explain why most people only saw this debate as a slight victory for Kerry.
Even absent the lies, Bush didn't do that good a job. When Kerry made direct and specific charges, Bush often just pretended the facts didn't exist. I had expected Bush to do better when looking at his words, but Kerry stayed on top for most of the evening with the exception of Iran and North Korea, very important topics on which Bush held his own or succeeded. Add in the telegenics and Bush's odd way of speaking -- phrase, pause, phrase, pause, as if he was being read his lines through a radio wire -- and on TV, Kerry trounced him.
Posted by Warrior Tang at October 1, 2004 03:03 PM