Well, that was different, as far as elections go.
I've been holding off on my commentary since Monday's poll for a couple of reasons. The main one was that the election was so insanely close in some ridings that recounts were necessary; the other reason is that I wanted to see how the various parties and party leaders were going to react to things.
So what do we have here? We've got a minority government - but not just any minority government.
Because of the recent redistricting, there were 308 Parliamentary seats up for grabs in this election for the House of Commons. With this count, the Liberals needed 155 or more seats to secure a majority government, which they've enjoyed in the previous three mandates since the fall of the Progressive-Conservatives in 1993. The problem is, going into the election the Liberals were hurting badly from the sponsorship mess, and as a result were expected to get at best a minority government, with the worst case being a Conservative minority or majority. In the event of a minority, the Liberals would likely buddy up to the New Democratic Party, the closest party to the Liberals ideologically, to take on legislation. This would mean two things: one, the Liberals could stand up against the potential odd counter-coalition of the Conservatives and the Bloq Quebecois, and two, the NDP could use the threat of withdrawn support to force through a number of their own social programs.
In the end, this was the seat count:
Going into this election, the Liberals expected to lose ground but were confidently predicting a majority. The Conservatives were expecting to gain a great deal, and were confidently predicting their own majority. Both parties edged towards predicting a minority later in the campaign as they eroded their public support.
What ended up happening was that the Liberals lost many seats and ended up getting handed a big minority government. The Conservatives, however, stayed under the hundred-seat barrier, were mauled badly in Atlantic Canada, and failed to break into Ontario. In this effect, the election was a devastating defeat for both major parties, something each leader has acknowledged. Martin, still the prime minister, noted that the election was a time for voters to "pass judgement," and interpreted the election not as a mandate but as a rebuke and cautious permission to continue to exist. Harper spun his results as a victory - hell, the man's post-election speech made it sound like he thought he got a majority - but he's currently making noises about stepping down as Conservative leader to fall on his sword over the whole thing.
So both parties got smoked, and we're left with a minority government that's probably Liberal-NDP versus Conservative-BQ. But what do we have here? 135 plus 19 equals 154, or exactly 50% of the House of Commons. Not only do we have a minority government, but the coalition is a minority.
The picture for the other parties and smaller players is pretty surprising. Strategic voting showed its head quite a bit in this campaign, particularly for the NDP. Towards election day, people were increasingly convinced a Liberal minority would be the result, and undecided voters began to swing left to try and create an NDP-based counterbalance to the government. Traditionally, the New Democrats have served well in that role, both as a voice of opposition and as someone for the Liberals to pass off popular but controversial programs onto. ("Blame them!" "Blame us!") As a result, the NDP's support took a significant jump: their popular vote increased by roughly a million of the 13.5 million citizens who voted in this election, and their seats jumped from 12 to 19, almost making good their losses from the 2000 campaign.
Meanwhile, the BQ took people by surprise and essentially swallowed rural Quebec whole. Increasing their seat count by 50%, the Bloq is more powerful than it's ever been, and in a position to exert quite a bit of influence on things. The BQ is a social-democratic party like the NDP, though their sovereignty platform towards Quebec and language issues puts them very much at odds with the Liberals. And, of course, as French-speaking, socialist, seperatist, eastern, largely-Catholic politicians, the BQ is largely an affront to the existence of the Conservatives, who are their opposite in just about every way. However, the two are alike in one way: they both want a weaker federal government, and as a result there is going to be an extremely uncomfortable coalition working together against the Liberals. The fact that the Conservative-BQ coalition totals 153 seats - the one independent is one of the many refugees from the Alliance-PC merger who isn't fond of his former party - shows that not only do we have a minority government and a minority coalition, but even the opposition can't put together enough support to guarantee a topling.
What's a result of this? Essentially, Paul Martin is still the Prime Minister. (This is also the first time since 1908 that a party was handed four consecutive mandates.) However, all three other parties - and the independent - have enormous, government-destroying amounts of power and influence to threaten with. If the Conservatives and BQ close ranks and two MPs from the other side ally with them - or simply aren't in Commons that day - it would be possible to bring down the government. Alternately, the NDP could threaten to hold out its own support of Martin's party in exchange for some political goodies, also leaving the threat open. As well, something odd could happen like the BQ caucusing with the Liberals, which would be devastating for the Conservatives. In the middle of it all, there's one independent of a not-quite-ambiguous position, able to force or break a tie.
For all practical purposes, Canada has something between two and five prime ministers right now, depending on the mood of the Parliament. Augh.
So what's going to happen with all this? We're going to see a pretty shakey government, unless some lucky byelections give the Liberals or NDP one or more seats in the next few months. We're going to see some pretty rigid party discipline on the part of the Liberals, and probably the NDP, for any even vaguely-important bills, and a lot of tussling with confidence measures like national budgets. The Conservatives and BQ are going to buddy up against the Liberals, which will form one of the most uncomfortable alliances in Canadian political history, unless the BQ allies with the Liberals on some issues.
The NDP is going to be putting a lot of support behind the Liberals - in exchange for favors. Most of these favors will be of the type which will be amenable to the Bloq Quebecois' more liberal policies, most likely, so chances are the NDP is going to have a fairly easy time getting their own policies across - far moreso than the Liberals will.
The Conservatives' call for free votes on everything might as well be forgotten now. In the interest of trying to weaken the Liberals more, they're going to have to either pull out all the stops or act even more divided and ambiguous than they had during the election. This will make the Liberals look strong, the Conservatives weak, and more than likely bounce the Liberals back to a majority government in the next election.
There will probably be a lower-than-usual amount of Controversial Party Positions this election; the Liberals will be worried about having something go wrong and backfire against them later on. There'll probably be a slightly more leftward than usual tilt to things, though; expect Parliament to finally form a formal opinion on the gay marriage issue (for), marijuana and other soft drugs (pro-decriminalization or legalization), and probably some semi-sticky issues on subjects like genetic engineering (where the stance will be vaguely Green or NDP in standing). Constitutional issues and major regional policies probably won't show up, although I could be surprised.
The next election will happen in the next year to eighteen months - you've heard it here first as I call December 2005. It will happen for one of two reasons: either the Consevatives and their allies (or a rebelling NDP, or a backbencher Liberal revolt, or someone being out of town on a major vote) will defeat the Liberals on a confidence vote, forcing an election which will probably lead to a Conservative minority or majority, or the Liberals will pull a Chretien 2000 and call an election at a moment of major Conservative weakness, rebounding to their fifth mandate as a majority.
Some other interesting things about this election:
That's that for now. Appropriately enough, I'm off to Canada Day debauch - uh, celebrations for the bulk of July 1. Should I survive, I'll be back posting tomorrow or the day after. If not, of course, you are all required to avenge my death.
Posted by zibblsnrt at June 30, 2004 10:48 PM