elections!
Well, if you've been living under a rock in Canada, or living in the States at all, you should be told that Canada's federal election campaign is underway, with the vote itself on June 28.
I figure since I've got a record to be on I'll take a shot at making my predictions.
- In terms of mudslinging and attack ads, this will be the ugliest election campaign in Canadian history. The Alliance decided to lower things a few notches in the 2000 campaign, giving it a reputation as the most American-style election campaign Canada had to that point. With the new Conservative Party essentially being the Alliance and a few die-hard Tories, this trend will continue. Here we've been getting mail from the Conservatives for about three weeks before the election call attacking the Liberals, the New Democrat Party and the Bloc Québécois. The other parties will be given the choice between sucking it down or getting into the trenches with the Conservatives, and I have a feeling the latter will be the results. The party leaders will remain as much targets as they have been so far.
- The sponsorship scandal the Liberals have been caught in for several months will lose them support. However, the swing voters will have a tendency to move more to the left than the right. While the Conservatives might make some small gains at Liberal expense, the NDP and BQ will gain the lion's share - particularly the latter.
- The Liberals will maintain the government, either with a smaller majority or a large minority. The Conservatives will probably maintain the opposition status, though an enlarged Bloc/NDP will lead to an increase in pressure from the left over the next term.
- Ottawa will not explode in a towering column of flame immediately before the final vote, despite the increased amounts of terrorism FUD.
Well, that's that. Time to see how it goes.
Posted
by zibblsnrt at May 24, 2004 02:35 PM
