So, the story's out and about. George W. Bush intends to make a major announcement about the space program next week, probably on the 14th. He's expected to direct NASA to make both a return to the moon and a manned mission to Mars within twenty years.
Call me crazy, but we've heard this story before.
Now admittedly we're going to have to wait for the 14th (or whenever) to hear anything resembling actual detail on the Bush plan, but according to the original UPI story, the rough sketch of the proposal follows the same basic outline as the 1989 Space Exploration Initiative proposed by Bush the Elder on the anniversary of the Apollo 11 landings. To wit:
...in that basic order. This is important to note, because SEI has not been part of the NASA Design Reference Mission since the late 1990s. The original SEI proposal involved a fairly involved bit of necessary on-orbit construction for both the lunar base and the Mars craft. All of the necessary infrastructure for this operation is ultimately what caused the $500 billion dollar price tage for the program, which is what led Congress to kill it quietly before it began moving. The backlash from SEI's "Battlestar Galactica" approach to space exploration drove the formation of Zubrin Mars Direct plan, which ultimately was picked up and modified by NASA into the Design Reference Mission. Both Mars Direct and the DRM provide for extended surface stays - 500 days plus - with a minimum cost in terms of developing infrastructure. The equipment could, with modifications, also be used as the basis of a lunar installation with equally minimal cost.
The most curious thing about the available details of Bush Plan right now is the article's insistence on the first manned mission not being a landing but rather a flyby, more like an Apollo 8 than Apollo 11. In terms of mission logistics this doesn't make much sense - it adds more difficulty to the mission without adding any significant gain. In terms of orbital surveying of Mars, this really is a place where robots can do a better job than humans. Where manned presence is needed is on the surface.
All in all, while I'm interested to see where this goes, I'm also skeptical. The timing of the announcement - which, don't forget, has NOT been made yet - coincides with the beginning of the 2004 primary season (the Iowa caususes are held on January 19, and Bush is set to make the announcement presumably on January 14). The timing seems odd for such a program, not coming this week (in the immediate afterglow of the Spirit landing), last month (for the Wright anniversary, when we originally thought he would make the announcement) or next month (for the one-year rememberance of STS-107). Also, the involvement of Bush's chief political advisor in the making of the decision strikes me as ensuring that this is more geared to scoring political points with the Space Coast than accomplishing anything worthwhile.
There also is a bit of a hue and cry from some quarters that this is the first step towards the "militarization of space." Frankly, we need to get something straight: the militarization of space is going to happen. Period. End of story. We're human, we live in nation-states and this ain't Star Trek. The military uses of space stretch back to the beginning of the space age, and manned military operations have already been conducted by both the United States and the Soviet Union. Most of this work has been experimental, which suits as most manned flight today is still experimental. However, once nations begin to expand into space in earnest, militaries will move along with them.
Does the Bush Plan give a push to increased military operations in orbit? As yet we don't know, although the reports hint at a greater connection between NASA and the Pentagon, so it's possible. I don't see this as necessarily the worst thing that could happen, though; if push comes to shove it'd be better to have a shooting war between the US and China in the space between Earth and Mars than having it happen on the Pacific Rim.
We'll see. First of all we'll have to see if Bush makes the stupid speech in the first place. Don't forget that we've been jerked around by similar announcements within the last month. Then we'll see what happens when Congress gets a hold of it, which is the real test, both of the proposal's viability and Bush's sincerity of support. Don't forget that Bush has majority control of both houses. If Congress drags feet on the proposal over the upcoming session and Bush does not lend his weight to getting it through committee and passed, then we'll know exactly how serious he really is.
Posted by the Fourth Man at January 10, 2004 10:38 AM